The grid changes
every quarter.
We broke down 1,408 NFL games (2020–2024) into quarter-end scores. The heatmap at Q1 looks nothing like the heatmap at the final. Your square's value shifts dramatically as the game unfolds.
Q1 Is a Three-Digit Game
After the first quarter, teams have usually scored 0, 3, or 7 points — and nothing else. Those three digits account for 90.4% of all Q1 scores. The digit 0 alone appears 41% of the time. That means the square [0-0] — both teams scoreless — hits nearly 15% of the time at Q1. One single square, on a 100-cell board, owning almost a 1-in-7 chance.
By the final whistle, the same three digits (0, 3, 7) account for just 43.8%. The grid goes from three digits dominating to a much flatter spread where previously dead digits like 1, 4, 6, 8, and 9 all become real contenders.
| DIGIT | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 24.7% | 20.2% | 17.7% | ↓ 23.3pts |
| 3 | 19.7% | 19.5% | 15.6% | 11.5% | ↓ 8.2pts |
| 7 | 29.7% | 22.3% | 19.8% | 15.7% | ↓ 14.0pts |
| 4 | 4.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 12.6% | ↑ 7.9pts |
| 6 | 3.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | ↑ 5.9pts |
| 9 | 0.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | ↑ 6.3pts |
Early Squares vs. Late Squares
Some squares are "early" squares — they peak at Q1 and fade as the game goes on. Others are "late" squares that are worthless early but come alive by Q4. Knowing the difference matters because ZapSquares pays different percentages at each quarter.
The Payout Structure Protects You
ZapSquares pays 10% at Q1, 20% at Q2, 30% at Q3, and 40% at the Final. That's not arbitrary — it works in the player's favor. The quarter where squares are most unequal (Q1, where three digits own 90% of outcomes) pays the least. The quarter where the grid is flattest and most squares have a real shot (Q4) pays the most.
Watch the Grid Flatten
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 12.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | 13.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
What 5,632 Quarter Scores Taught Us
Data sourced from nflverse's play-by-play dataset covering every NFL regular season and playoff game from 2020 through 2024 — 1,408 games, 5,632 quarter-end scores. For each quarter, we record the cumulative score at the final play of that quarter and extract the last digit. The heatmap shows the per-cell probability at each quarter break.
Source: nflverse/nflverse-data (play-by-play parquet files) · Analysis: ZapSquares IQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Q1 look so different from Q4?
After one quarter, most teams have scored 0, 3, or 7 points — a touchdown, a field goal, or nothing. There simply aren't enough scoring events to generate digits like 2, 5, 8, or 9. By Q4, teams have accumulated enough points that unusual scoring combinations (safeties, missed PATs, two-point conversions stacking with other scores) create more digit diversity.
Does this mean bad squares are still worth owning?
For Q4, yes — sort of. A square like [4-1] is literally 0.00% at Q1 but 1.85% at Q4. Since Q4 pays 40% of the prize pool, that square has real value by the end of the game. But a truly dead square like [5-2] stays bad all game long (0.21% even at Q4).
What's the best overall square across all quarters?
[0-0] or [7-0]. The square [0-0] hits 14.91% at Q1 and stays respectable through Q4 at 2.91%. The square [7-0] is the most consistent performer, hitting 13.92% at Q1, 6.82% at Q2, 5.04% at Q3, and 3.98% at Q4. It's the best square at three of the four quarters.
How does ZapSquares' payout structure interact with this?
Favorably. The most concentrated quarter (Q1, where 3 digits own 90% of outcomes) only pays 10% of the pool. The flattest quarter (Q4) pays 40%. This means even if you draw unfavorable digits, most of the prize money is awarded at the quarter where you have the best chance.