40 years of madness.
The numbers tell the story.
We analyzed every NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament game from 1985–2024 (2,456 games) to measure how often each final-score digit hits — and what that means for your square on the board.
Basketball Digits Are Almost Flat
Unlike football where 0, 3, 4, and 7 dominate because of field goals and touchdowns, basketball scoring in 2s and 3s (plus free throws) produces a remarkably even distribution. The most common digit (3, at 10.6%) is barely ahead of the least common (7, at 9.3%). If every digit were perfectly equal, each would be 10.0%.
So where's the real edge? It's not about individual digits — it's about the diagonal.
The Diagonal Tax
In a squares pool, each cell on the board is its own bet. You own "Home ends in 3, Away ends in 7" — and someone else owns "Home 7, Away 3." They can't swap. So why are diagonal cells (where both teams share a digit) consistently the worst?
It comes down to scoring margins. For both teams to end on the same last digit, the final point difference must end in zero — think 10-point wins, 20-point blowouts, or 30-point routs. Since basketball games can't end in ties, and most competitive games finish with margins of 1 through 9, same-digit outcomes are naturally suppressed. The data bears it out: diagonal cells average about 25–30% lower probability than off-diagonal cells.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
Best & Worst Squares
What 2,456 Games Taught Us
Data sourced from every NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament game from 1985 through 2024 — 2,456 games total. For each game, we record the last digit of each team's final score. The heatmap shows the per-cell probability: "if you own exactly this square, how often does it hit?" All 100 cells sum to 100%.
Source: march-madness-games-csv (GitHub) · Analysis: ZapSquares IQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best numbers for March Madness squares?
Based on 2,456 tournament games, the best individual square is [1-4] at 1.39%. That means if you own that exact cell, roughly 1 in 72 games hits for you. Other strong squares include [2-8] at 1.34%, [0-2] at 1.28%, and [2-5] at 1.26%.
What are the worst numbers for March Madness squares?
The worst square is [7-7] at just 0.45% — roughly 1 in 222 games. Four of the five worst squares are diagonal (same digit both teams). The lone off-diagonal in the bottom 5 is [6-9] at 0.76%.
Why are same-number squares worse?
Scoring margins. For both teams to end on the same digit, the margin must end in 0 (10-point win, 20-point blowout, etc.). Since basketball games can't end in ties and most competitive games have single-digit margins, same-digit endings are naturally less common — about 25–30% less likely on average.
Are basketball squares different from football squares?
Very different. In football, digits 0, 3, 4, and 7 dominate because touchdowns (6+1) and field goals (3) create predictable patterns. Basketball scoring — 2s, 3s, and free throws — produces a much flatter distribution where no single digit has a major advantage.