The grid doesn't lie.
3,211 playoff games prove it.
We analyzed every NBA playoff game from 1985–2025 to find which squares on a 10×10 board are worth owning — and which ones you're stuck praying on.
Playoff Digits Look Just Like March Madness
If you've read our March Madness analysis, the punchline is familiar: basketball digits are nearly flat. The same scoring mechanics — 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and free throws — produce the same effect whether it's the NCAA tournament or the NBA postseason.
Across 3,211 playoff games, the most common digits (1 and 6, both at 10.7%) barely edge out the least common (0, at 9.3%) — a total spread of just 1.4 percentage points. In football, that spread is closer to 15 points. So where's the edge? Same as always: the diagonal.
The Diagonal Tax
In your squares pool, each cell is its own bet. You own "Home ends in 1, Away ends in 6" — and someone else owns "Home 6, Away 1." Those are two separate squares. So the edge isn't about combinatorics.
It's about scoring margins. For both teams to end on the same digit, the final margin must end in zero — think 10-point wins or 20-point blowouts. Since basketball games can't end in ties, and most competitive games finish with margins of 1 through 9, same-digit outcomes are naturally suppressed. The data confirms it: diagonal cells average about 25% lower probability than off-diagonal cells.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
Best & Worst Squares
What 3,211 Games Taught Us
Data sourced from every NBA playoff game from 1985 through 2025 — 3,211 games via the official stats.nba.com API. For each game, we record the last digit of each team's final score. The heatmap shows the per-cell probability: "if you own exactly this square, how often does it hit?" All 100 cells sum to 100%.
Source: stats.nba.com via nba_api · Analysis: ZapSquares IQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best numbers for NBA playoff squares?
Based on 3,211 games, the best individual square is [1-6] at 1.43%. That means if you own that exact cell, roughly 1 in 70 games hits for you. Other strong squares include [1-3] at 1.39% and [3-6] at 1.31%.
What are the worst numbers for NBA playoff squares?
The worst square is [6-6] at just 0.53% — roughly 1 in 189 games. Four of the five worst squares are diagonal (same digit both teams). The lone off-diagonal in the bottom 5 is [0-5] at 0.73%.
Why are same-number squares worse?
Scoring margins. For both teams to end on the same digit, the margin must end in 0 (10-point win, 20-point blowout, etc.). Since basketball games can't end in ties and most competitive games have single-digit margins, same-digit endings are naturally less common — about 25% less likely on average.
How does this compare to March Madness?
Nearly identical. Same scoring mechanics, same flat digit distributions, same diagonal penalty. The best specific squares differ slightly ([1-6] for NBA vs [1-4] for NCAA) but the overall strategy is the same. See our March Madness analysis for the full breakdown.